MSC appears to be returning to the Suez Canal and Red Sea route considerably faster than expected.
According to Linerlytica, seven MSC vessels have been documented transiting through Suez and subsequently through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Among these are large container ships: the MSC Irina with a capacity of 24,346 TEU and the MSC Amelia with 23,782 TEU.
Noteworthy is the manner of passage. According to Linerlytica, all seven transits through Bab el-Mandeb had their AIS transponders switched off. AIS is the Automatic Identification System, through which a vessel's position and movement data become visible. These so-called "dark transits" are designed to make ships less easily traceable in this particularly high-risk region.
Nevertheless, this should not yet be interpreted as a complete return by MSC to the Suez Canal. MSC itself has not yet announced a general return. The observed transits have so far been eastbound toward Asia. However, Linerlytica expects further such passages.
The background is also economically motivated. Circumnavigating Africa via the Cape of Good Hope costs time and ties up considerable vessel capacity. A return via Suez can save approximately seven to fourteen days of transit time, depending on the route. At the same time, major Chinese ports are struggling with backlogs and waiting times of up to twelve days following typhoons.
This is significant for freight rates. If more vessels return to the shorter Suez route, less additional capacity will be bound up in the lengthy Africa circumnavigation. This could place additional downward pressure on ocean freight rates. The Shanghai-North Europe Index recently stood at approximately 4,811 USD per 40-foot container, roughly 3 percent below the level on August 7.