Red Sea: Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Transit-Time Impact
Weekly figures as of 1 October 2026. One attack can turn the route back toward the Cape within days. For bookings, use carrier and insurer advisories.
Suez transits, average of the four weeks to 27 September 2026
Latest single week 21–27 Sept: 278, previous week 295. June average: 252. Not a daily figure.
Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence — Red Sea Brief (1 Oct 2026), 2026Bab el-Mandeb transits 21–27 September 2026 (preliminary)
Previous week 264. Four-week average 280. June 316, January 257. Other trackers are lower; do not flatten the range into one number.
Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence — Red Sea Brief (1 Oct 2026), 2026Suez instead of the Cape on Asia–Europe, if the return holds
Windward: container transits through Suez from March to September rose from 139 to 221. Western carriers cross Bab el-Mandeb mostly with AIS off.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News / Windward (2026), 2026Operational status (as of 2 October 2026)
| Topic | Status | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Suez traffic | Elevated, not closed. Four-week average to 27 Sept: 287 transits/week. Week of 21–27 Sept: 278. | Volatile |
| Bab el-Mandeb | Open and busy, a preliminary 290 in the week of 21–27 Sept. EU mission Aspides: ships are queuing, Kaja Kallas said, because escorts are short. | Volatile |
| Houthi risk | Attacks since the summer mainly on ships with a Saudi link. ACLED: 10 commercial ships attacked, at least 6 hit. On 4 Aug the Faize Noore Oliya sank; on 11 Aug four crew died on the Tihama. The group can widen its target list. | Volatile |
| Crude through Suez | Week to 27 Sept: 53 crude transits (6.7 million dwt), the lowest tonnage since mid-July. Cause: Saudi volumes stopped moving south after the Houthi ban and the Yanbu outage. | Volatile |
| Cape diversion | Still the fallback. Returning via Suez saves one to two weeks. A single hit at Bab el-Mandeb can reverse the gain. | In force |
Weekly figures, not a guarantee for a given day. For a single voyage: carrier advisory, war risk cover and UKMTO/JMIC reports.
Two chokepoints, one lane
Suez shortens Asia–Europe versus the Cape. Bab el-Mandeb sits at the southern end. Reading only the canal and not the strait books a lane that can stop at the southern exit.
What the return means for transit times
From March to September 2026, container transits through Suez rose from 139 to 221 according to Windward. The large ships on Asia–Europe services gained the most. The return leg to Asia came first: lines reposition ships and empty boxes before full loads from Asia to Europe go through the Red Sea again. Versus the Cape that is one to two weeks less. City-pair bands live in the transit index, for example Shanghai–Hamburg. That is not a carrier quote.
The return is fragile. Western carriers cross Bab el-Mandeb mostly without AIS. The Houthis say they are targeting Saudi-linked traffic. ACLED notes that ownership, management, cargo and port calls can already count as a link — and that the list can widen. For a booking, the carrier advisory and war-risk cover count, not the weekly statistic.
Trajectory: from diversion to a partial return
Cape diversions become widespread
After attacks on commercial shipping, many Asia–Europe liner services divert around Africa. UNCTAD documents the longer route.
Houthi ban on Saudi ports
From 20 July, tankers avoid the southbound trip from Yanbu. Lloyd’s List: weekly crude transits through Suez then average 67, until the mid-September East-West outage pulls the volume back down.
Tihama: four dead; Faize Noore Oliya already sunk
ACLED: the Houthis attacked ten commercial ships, most with a Saudi link. On 4 August the Faize Noore Oliya sank; on 11 August four crew died on the Tihama.
Suez average 287, Bab el-Mandeb 290, return not finished
Lloyd’s List Intelligence: traffic over both chokepoints is above January, but Bab el-Mandeb is below the June peak. Container services are coming back, many with AIS off. EU mission Aspides does not have escorts for every request.
Latest news on this topic
All news8 Oct 2026
Asia-Europe: Increased Suez Traffic Intensifies Pressure on Freight Rates
More Suez traffic brings capacity back to Asia–Europe. This puts pressure on rates, while port congestion and blank sailings could quickly reverse the picture.
3 Oct 2026
Gemini Sends Four Additional Services Through Suez Canal
Four Gemini services return to Suez. Shippers benefit from shorter transit times, but must continue planning for diversions.
19 Aug 2026
MSC Reroutes Seven Container Ships Through Suez and Bab el-Mandeb
MSC is increasingly operating through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea again. Seven vessels have already been documented. However, a complete return to the route has not yet been officially announced.
13 Aug 2026
Cosco Reopens Red Sea – Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Expand Suez Services
Cosco as well as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are expanding their services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. This could have major implications for transit times and capacity.
Next steps
Matching tools and partners
Frequently asked questions
Is the Suez Canal closed?›
No. In the four weeks to 27 September 2026, transits averaged 287 a week (Lloyd’s List Intelligence, brief of 1 October). That is a weekly average, not a promise for tomorrow. Bab el-Mandeb remains the risk on the same lane.
How much longer is the Cape route?›
Returning through the Red Sea currently saves one to two weeks on Asia–Europe versus the Cape (Windward, March–September 2026). That is an order of magnitude from the voyages, not a carrier offer. The transit index shows the concrete city pair.
Which ships are most at risk in the Red Sea?›
Since summer 2026, according to ACLED, mainly ships with a Saudi link: flag, owner, cargo or a port call can be enough. Ten commercial ships were attacked, at least six hit. The Houthis can widen the criteria. AIS-off on Western carriers is not an all-clear.
Sources & authoritative references
- ReferenceLloyd’s List Intelligence — Red Sea Brief (1 Oct 2026)
- AuthorityACLED — Houthi gains and Red Sea shipping risk
- ReferenceHellenic Shipping News / Windward — Suez container return (2026)
- OfficialEIA — World Oil Transit Chokepoints
- AuthorityUNCTAD — Review of Maritime Transport
- OfficialSuez Canal Authority
- OfficialIMO — Maritime Security