At the Strait of Hormuz, hardly anyone knows what rules will apply the next day. Almost daily, new reports, agreements, and counterstatements emerge.
Iran declared the strait closed again on June 20. The Iranian armed forces justify this by citing violations of the preliminary agreement with the USA and renewed fighting in Lebanon. Ships have been warned not to approach the strait.
The USA presents a completely different picture. The US Central Command states that Iran does not control the strait and that international shipping traffic continues. On June 20, the USA reported 55 merchant vessels and over 17 million barrels of oil that had passed through Hormuz.
Who is right?
From the perspective of a freight forwarder, this question is almost secondary. The crucial factors are whether a shipping company assumes the risk, whether the crew is allowed to sail, and whether the insurer provides coverage.
A strait does not need to be blocked by a chain to be practically unusable for commercial traffic. Even a warning about attacks, mines, or seizures is sufficient for shipping companies to postpone voyages and for insurers to demand higher premiums.
The available ship data continues to show a significantly restricted and irregular traffic pattern. Depending on the tracker, time period, and data collection method, the numbers may vary considerably. Therefore, an exact figure for the current day should be treated with caution.
It is clear that normal and reliably predictable traffic is out of the question. Individual ships may pass through, while large portions of the commercial fleet still avoid the route.
This has implications far beyond the Persian Gulf. Oil and LNG transports are becoming more expensive, bunker prices respond sensitively, and shipping companies are demanding additional risk or war surcharges. Delivery times and available capacities also remain difficult to calculate.
Importantly: The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are two different crisis areas. A calming of the situation in Hormuz does not automatically mean that shipping companies will immediately resume routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.