Freight Market Remains Firmly in Carrier Hands
Despite slight positive economic signals, the international freight market continues to exhibit a clear power dynamic. The bargaining power currently rests heavily with the carriers. New market data from the SONAR analysis system by FreightWaves confirms this trend.
A central indicator of market structure is known as rejection rates. These indicate how often transportation providers decline orders when the offered conditions are not attractive enough. High values practically mean that carriers have sufficient alternatives and can therefore selectively accept orders.
This very picture is currently evident in the market. The latest data suggest that the demand for transport capacity remains high while the available supply is limited. Even though economic expectations for 2026 have slightly improved, no significant capacity increase is visible so far.
For shippers and freight forwarders, this presents a challenging situation in price negotiations. Those who want to secure transport volumes often have to accept higher freight rates or offer more flexible terms.
Additional pressure is created by rising fuel costs. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has led to higher oil prices in recent weeks. For shipping, these developments directly impact the so-called bunker costs.
Bunker prices are a critical component of the operational cost structure for shipping companies. When fuel prices rise, these additional costs are typically passed on to customers through surcharges. This includes bunker adjustment factor surcharges or similar cost components in transport contracts.
The combination of high demand, limited capacity, and rising operational costs stabilizes the strong market position of the carriers. Even in an environment with moderate economic growth, competition for available transport capacities remains intense.
Industry analysts are therefore continuing to observe pronounced market volatility. Shipping companies react flexibly to changes in demand, adjust schedules, or reduce capacity on less profitable routes.
This situation remains challenging for global supply chains. Companies must increasingly design their transport strategies dynamically and continuously monitor market developments.