The new EU customs regulations for small shipments are showing clear signs of impact on the air freight market. According to WorldACD, billable air freight weight from Hong Kong to Europe in week 29, from July 13-19, 2026, declined by another 5 percent compared to the previous week. This was already the fifth consecutive weekly decline.
Compared to the same week of the previous year, the volume was 24 percent lower. Over the average of weeks 26-29, the decline was 18 percent. Air freight from mainland China to Europe also experienced a downturn. In week 29, it was 10 percent below the previous year's value.
WorldACD attributes the decline to the new EU regulations. Since July 1, the previous customs exemption for shipments up to 150 euros was abolished. For many e-commerce shipments and postal items processed via IOSS, a temporary customs duty of 3 euros per item applies. At the same time, requirements for simplified H7 customs declaration were adjusted.
Hong Kong is particularly affected because a large proportion of air freight there consists of small-scale e-commerce shipments. Overall, air freight from Asia-Pacific to Europe in weeks 28 and 29 each declined by 13 percent compared to the previous year. Vietnam and Thailand also reported declines.
Movement is also visible in freight rates. The spot rate from China to Europe fell in week 29 by 5 percent to an average of 4.17 US dollars per kilogram. However, it remained 8 percent above the previous year. The global average rate from contract and spot prices was 3.00 US dollars per kilogram and was 23 percent above the previous year's value.
The comparison with the USA must be read cautiously. China–USA was 19 percent and Hong Kong–USA 8 percent above the previous year. However, the comparison values in summer 2025 following the then-US customs change were particularly weak. A direct shift of all shipments from Europe to the USA cannot be derived from this.