The Panama Canal is preparing for a potentially very strong El Niño. The US climate authority NOAA sees an 81 percent probability for October through December 2026 that a very strong El Niño event will develop. The Panama Canal is therefore warning of possible further capacity restrictions. However, no comprehensive cuts to daily transit numbers have been decided yet.
The new draft restrictions for the Neopanamax locks are already concrete. Draft describes how deep a loaded vessel sits in the water. Since July 24, the maximum permitted draft has been 14.94 meters or 49 feet. Starting August 15, it will be further reduced to 14.78 meters or 48.5 feet.
For container shipping lines, this could mean that individual vessels are not permitted to load as much cargo. Particularly heavy containers could be loaded later, shifted to other departures, or transported via alternative routes. Whether this actually happens on a larger scale depends on water levels in Lake Gatún and vessel utilization rates.
MSC is already responding with a Panama Canal Surcharge, or PCS for short. Starting August 19, 2026, the shipping line is charging USD 100 per TEU. For a 40-foot container, this typically corresponds to USD 200. The gate-in date is decisive.
The surcharge does not apply to all MSC traffic through the Panama Canal. Shipments from Southeast Asia, China, South Korea, and Japan to the US East Coast and US Gulf Coast are affected. The surcharge applies to all cargo types and until further notice.
Reports of an already decided reduction from 36 to 34 daily booking slots are outdated. The temporary planned suspension of certain short-term Panamax auctions has been withdrawn. Further cuts remain possible if water conditions deteriorate.