The air freight industry must significantly adjust its expectations for 2026. IATA now predicts only 71.7 million tons of air freight, which is just 0.2 percent more than the previous year.
As recently as late 2025, IATA anticipated much stronger growth. Now, market pressures from conflicts in the Middle East, weaker global trade, and limited flight connections are weighing down expectations.
At the same time, costs are skyrocketing. The global fuel bill for airlines is projected to rise from 252 to around 350 billion USD in 2026. This represents an increase of nearly 40 percent from the previous year. The average price for aviation fuel is expected to be nearly 70 percent higher.
This presents a unique situation for air freight. Volume growth is minimal, but costs are rising sharply. Additionally, on some routes, there is less cargo space available in the bellies of passenger aircraft. This can keep rates elevated, even as overall volume essentially stagnates.
Consequently, IATA expects air freight revenues to rise by 7.2 percent to 162 billion USD. Not due to a significant increase in cargo volume, but because airlines are passing part of the higher costs onto prices.
For shippers, this means that minimal growth does not automatically result in lower rates. On certain lanes, tight capacities, detours, and high fuel surcharges can continue to lead to significant price increases.