GlossaryEN1 min readUpdated: Jun 18, 2026

Risk prognosis

A risk prognosis is a forward-looking assessment of which adverse events are likely to affect logistics flows or supply chain operations within a defined time horizon, and to what degree.

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Last updated: 18 June 2026Published: 27 January 2026

Source: https://www.iso.org/iso-31000-risk-management.html

Category

Logistics Concept

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1 min

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111

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Definition & Explanation

A risk prognosis is a forward-looking assessment of which adverse events are likely to affect logistics flows or supply chain operations within a defined time horizon, and to what degree. It draws on historical disruption data, current market signals, and scenario assumptions—covering areas such as seasonal capacity constraints, geopolitical developments, port congestion, or container availability. The key distinction from risk assessment lies in its temporal dimension: while assessment captures the current state of exposure, prognosis projects how risks may evolve and enables early countermeasures such as rerouting, inventory build-up, or contractual safeguards. Supply chain planners and freight managers use it as a foundation for business continuity planning and transport budget forecasting.