# IATA Lowers Air Freight Forecast: Only 0.2 Percent Growth Expected

**Category:** Industry News  |  **Source:** Frachtportal Redaktion  |  **Published:** 2026-06-14  |  **Updated:** 2026-06-17

**Tags:** IATA, IATA Airfreight 2026, IATA Prognose 2026, Air Cargo 2026, Luftfracht Wachstum, Cargo Kapazität, Kerosinpreise, Treibstoffkosten Airlines, Fuel Airlines, Logistik News, Transport News, Fracht News, Speditions News, Supply Chain News, Zoll News, Frachtportal News, Luftfracht, Digitalisierung

> IATA anticipates virtually no growth in air freight volumes by 2026. At the same time, airlines are facing a nearly 40 percent increase in fuel costs.

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The air freight industry must significantly adjust its expectations for 2026. IATA now predicts only 71.7 million tons of air freight, which is just 0.2 percent more than the previous year.

As recently as late 2025, IATA anticipated much stronger growth. Now, market pressures from conflicts in the Middle East, weaker global trade, and limited flight connections are weighing down expectations.

At the same time, costs are skyrocketing. The global fuel bill for airlines is projected to rise from 252 to around 350 billion USD in 2026. This represents an increase of nearly 40 percent from the previous year. The average price for aviation fuel is expected to be nearly 70 percent higher.

This presents a unique situation for air freight. Volume growth is minimal, but costs are rising sharply. Additionally, on some routes, there is less cargo space available in the bellies of passenger aircraft. This can keep rates elevated, even as overall volume essentially stagnates.

Consequently, IATA expects air freight revenues to rise by 7.2 percent to 162 billion USD. Not due to a significant increase in cargo volume, but because airlines are passing part of the higher costs onto prices.

For shippers, this means that minimal growth does not automatically result in lower rates. On certain lanes, tight capacities, detours, and high fuel surcharges can continue to lead to significant price increases.

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For shippers and freight forwarders, this means: Do not expect automatically declining air freight rates.

Demand is growing only slightly, but fuel, detours, and scarce capacities remain expensive. Especially on routes over the Middle East or for last-minute bookings, it can get tight.

In short: Less growth, but not necessarily lower prices.

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IATA expects an air freight volume of 71.7 million tons by 2026.

This corresponds to a growth of only 0.2 percent compared to 2025.

Measured in freight ton kilometers, the forecast stands at plus 0.7 percent.

At the end of 2025, IATA had still anticipated a growth of 2.6 percent.

Global fuel costs for airlines are projected to rise from 252 to 350 billion USD.

This represents an increase of nearly 40 percent.

Aviation fuel is expected to average around 152 USD per barrel in 2026.

Nevertheless, air freight revenues are expected to rise by 7.2 percent to 162 billion USD.

According to IATA, air freight rates or yields are expected to increase by approximately 6.5 percent.

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